Pakistan nears deal to buy 8 Chinese submarines
April 1, 2015 11:35 am

The most expensive Chinese arms export deal in history appeared set to go ahead on Wednesday after Pakistan’s government approved a deal to buy eight submarines from Beijing.

Although officials from Pakistan’s navy neither gave a price tag nor revealed the types of submarines being pursued, they confirmed a decision “in principle” during a hearing of the defence committee in the lower house of parliament in Islamabad.

A former senior Pakistan navy officer with knowledge of the negotiations told the Financial Times the contract could be worth $4bn-$5bn. “China has agreed once again to step in to fill a major strategic gap,” he said. “It was about time we placed an order.”

However, Chinese analysts valued the deal at less than half that amount.

The estimate of $4bn-$5bn is on par with the estimated cost of six French submarines bought by India in 2005,which cost $4bn-$4.5bn when they were delivered in 2010, according to Siemon Wezeman, an expert on the international arms market at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Mr Wezeman said the Pakistan deal was likely to be China’s biggest arms sale, eclipsing a deal for 50 JF-17 fighter jets bought by Pakistan in 2010 for more than $1bn.

Islamabad has long been Beijing’s top arms customer, driving China’s emergence as a major exporter of military hardware. Pakistan bought more than 40 per cent of China’s arms exports over the past five years, according to research by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

China’s arms exports surged 143 per cent over the same period, making it the world’s third-largest arms exporter, behind only the US and Russia.

Defence analysts in Islamabad say Beijing may have agreed to the submarines deal to help counter the perceived threat from India, amid fears the country is building its navy to claim a presence in the Pacific.

“China has its own strategic reasons to help Pakistan in this area,” said Ali Sarwar Naqvi, a former senior Pakistani diplomat. “As India prepares to head in to the Pacific Ocean, the Chinese are looking to head in to the Indian Ocean.”

Ian Storey, a security expert at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, agreed that there was clear strategic rationale for the deal.

“India has been modernising and expanding its navy for over a decade now,” he said. “While Pakistan can never close the gap between its own and India’s conventional armed forces, submarines would provide the Pakistan Navy with a credible deterrent.”

Other senior navy officers say Pakistan’s current fleet of five French Agosta submarines, including two ageing vessels built in the 1970s, will by the next decade be insufficient to meet the challenge posed by the planned naval expansion of India, Pakistan’s neighbour and main foe.

Hasan Askari Rizvi, a Pakistani military expert, cautioned that it was too early to say the deal marked a deepening of Beijing’s already strong defence and security ties with Islamabad. “At this stage, we don’t know the exact financial terms and unless we know the financial terms we can’t be certain about the significance of this order,” he said. “Still, it’s an important contract for Pakistan.”
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