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Chinese analysts have told Mastro that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could have the capacity to mount an invasion of Taiwan in a year or two; she and other US experts believe the real date will be towards the end of the decade, perhaps 2028.

“Even if you think China won’t do that [invade], it surely is going to change the calculations to have that option in the back of their head,” Mastro said. “I would argue that they’re likely to be a little bit more risk taking, a little bit more aggressive.”

Xi has already upended a decade-long commitment to cautious foreign policy, encapsulated by a favourite maxim of the former leader Deng Xiaoping: “Hide your strength, bide your time.” Deng, who ushered in far-reaching market reforms, argued that China could not afford international tensions and should avoid aggression as its economy recovered from the ravages of Maoism.

Now Xi, who has promised a “national rejuvenation”, leads the world’s second largest economy and has pursued an aggressive foreign policy, including territorial claims from the border with India in the west to the South China Sea in the east.

Ho-fung Hung, professor of political economy at Johns Hopkins University, does not think an invasion of Taiwan is imminent, but says Hong Kong’s security law sent a very clear message about China’s long-term plans.

“The national security law in Hong Kong is very important to show that Beijing is ready to defy international outcry,” he said. “It will be a kind of a warning to Taiwan: ’Don’t think that Beijing would not take military action. Don’t think that we will fear international reaction.’”

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---- > taiwan.... Alias ROC....... Bakal madesu bngt jk amrik gak bs menolong nya sama skali........