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https://www.kaskus.co.id/thread/595e2b055c779800618b456d/pakistan-cant-afford-chinas-friendship
Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’ Pakistan's elites think Chinese cash can save the country. They're wrong. In recent months, the Chinese-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has left Pakistanis emboldened, Indians angry, and U.S. analysts worried. Ostensibly, CPEC will connect Pakistan to China’s western Xinjiang province through the development of vast new transportation and ener
Lapor Hansip
06-07-2017 19:20

Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’

Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’


Pakistan's elites think Chinese cash can save the country. They're wrong.

Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’

In recent months, the Chinese-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has left Pakistanis emboldened, Indians angry, and U.S. analysts worried.

Ostensibly, CPEC will connect Pakistan to China’s western Xinjiang province through the development of vast new transportation and energy infrastructure. The project is part of China’s much-hyped Belt and Road Initiative, a grand, increasingly vague geopolitical plan bridging Eurasia that China’s powerful President Xi Jinping has promoted heavily.

Pakistani and Chinese officials boast that CPEC will help address Pakistan’s electricity generation problem, bolster its road and rail networks, and shore up the economy through the construction of special economic zones. But these benefits are highly unlikely to materialize.

The project is more inclined to leave Pakistan burdened with unserviceable debt while further exposing the fissures in its internal security.

Pakistan and China often speak of their “all-weather friendship,” but the truth is that the relationship has always been a cynical one. China cultivated Pakistan as a client through the provision of military assistance; diplomatic and political cover in the U.N. Security Council; and generous loan aid in an effort to counter both American influence and the system of anti-Communist Western treaty alliances. China also sought to embolden Pakistan to harangue India, but not to the point of war because that would expose the hard limits of Chinese support. Despite Pakistan’s boasts of iron-clad Chinese support, when Pakistan went to war with India in 1965, 1971, and 1999, China did little or nothing to bail out its client in distress.

During the 1971 war, when India intervened in Pakistan’s civil war in its Bengali-dominated eastern wing, President Richard Nixon requested China move troops along its eastern border with India to intimidate India and stave off Pakistan’s defeat.

However, China declined to undertake even this modest effort to preclude India from vivisecting Pakistan. East Pakistan became independent Bangladesh in 1971. In a nod to Pakistan, China refused to recognize Bangladesh until August 1975, even after Pakistan did so in February 1974.

There’s little reason to think China has made a sudden conversion to altruism when it comes to CPEC. The project originated in 2013, when the Chinese premier, Li Keqiang, and Pakistan’s then-president, Asif Ali Zardari, agreed to build an economic corridor between the two countries. The project inched closer to fruition in 2014, when Pakistan’s President Mamnoon Hussain and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif traveled to China on different occasions to further discussions. In November 2014, the Chinese government announced that it would finance $46 billion in energy and infrastructure projects in Pakistan as part of CPEC. In September 2016, China announced a new loan deal for CPEC valued at $51.6 billion. In November 2016, part of CPEC became “operational” when products were moved by truck from China and loaded onto ships at Pakistan’s port Gwador along the Makran coast for markets in West Asia and Africa. After this major development, China declared that it would increase its investment again to $62 billion in April.

Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership alike have told the public that CPEC will solve Pakistan’s chronic electricity shortages, improve an aging road and rail infrastructure, provide a fillip to Pakistan’s economy, knit an increasingly pariah state to a new Chinese-led geopolitical order, and diminish the role of the much-reviled United States in the region. CPEC has the bonus of irritating the Indians because it strengthens Pakistan’s hold on territory in Jammu and Kashmir that it snatched in the 1947-48 war as well as portions of that territory that Pakistan subsequently ceded to China in 1963 as a part of the Sino-Pakistan boundary agreement. India claims these lands, currently held by Pakistan and China, and deems their occupation illegal.

Despite the bold claims made by China and Pakistan, there are many reasons to be dubious about the purported promises of CPEC.

There’s already violence all along the corridor. The north-most part of CPEC is the Karakoram Highway (KKH), which gashes through the Karakoram Mountain Range to connect Kashgar in Xinjiang with Pakistan’s troubled province of Gilgit-Baltistan.

Xinjiang is in the throes of a slow-burning insurgency by the Muslim Uighur minority against the Communist state. Gilgit-Baltistan, a Shiite-majority polity under the thumb of a Sunni-dominated Pakistan, is part of the above-noted contested territory of Jammu-Kashmir. Here, geology and weather further limit CPEC. The Karakoram Highway, a narrow road weaving through perilous mountains, can’t bear heavy traffic. Expanding the KKH will not be easy. Residents of Gilgit-Baltistan worry about the environmental costs in relation to the few benefits they will enjoy. There have been episodic protests, which the Pakistani government has ruthlessly put down. Meanwhile, Gwador is experiencing a prolonged drought, frustrating the project while the four extant desalination plants remain idle.

In the south, CPEC is anchored to the port at Gwador in Pakistan’s insurgency-riven Balochistan province. The local Baloch people deeply resent the plan because it will fundamentally change the demography of the area. Before the expansion of Gwadar, the population of the area was 70,000. If the project comes to full fruition the population would be closer to 2 million — most of whom would be non-Baloch. Many poor Baloch have already been displaced from the area. Since construction has begun, there have been numerous attacks against Chinese personnel, among other workers.

There’s also the stubborn problem of economic competitiveness. For CPEC to be more competitive than the North-South Corridor that is rooted to the Iranian port of Chabahar, Gwador needs to offer a safer and shorter route from the Arabian Sea to Central Asia. For that to happen, Gwador needs to be connected by road to the Afghan Ring Road in Afghanistan’s Kandahar province,which is under sustained attacks by the Afghan Taliban. Alternatively, a new route could connect Gwador with the border crossing at Torkham (near Peshawar) by traveling up Balochistan, with its own active ethnic insurgency, through or adjacent to Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas, which is the epicenter of Islamist terrorism and insurgency throughout Pakistan. It takes great faith — or idiocy, or greed, or all of the above — to believe that this is possible.

All of these issues raise salient questions about the real utility of this unfolding fiasco. If CPEC is not an economically viable route for actual commerce, what purpose does it serve? Analyst Andrew Small, among others, has argued that CPEC is, in reality, a redundant supply route for China should it face an embargo during a military conflict. It’s also possible that if the port at Gwador is not economically sustainable the real goal is the creation of a Chinese naval outpost.

Many in India, Pakistan’s historic rival, have also come to this conclusion. They may well be correct, according to recent Chinese reports indicating that China may “expand its marine corps and may station new marine brigades in Gwadar.”

While the benefits to transit may be illusory, it is possible that Pakistan could benefit from purportedly low-hanging fruit, including the much-lauded economic zones and power plants. Pakistan does struggle with power shortages. But its problem is not a lack of supply, rather the complex issue of “circular debt” referring to the accumulating unpaid bills of the power sector; the theft of power through illegal connections, meter tampering, and other means; and an inadequate transmission system. Meanwhile, Pakistanis have learned that the current Chinese development model will do little for their economy. China prefers to use its own companies and employees rather than hire locally.

Pakistani citizens also have no way to know what CPEC will cost them. Neither government has been clear about what projects are part of the plan. Costing has been completely opaque. China sets the price, contracts the work out to Chinese companies, and saddles Pakistan with the loans. Given the ongoing security threats on Chinese nationals in Pakistan, Islamabad is raising a CPEC Protection Force, the costs of which will be passed on to Pakistani citizens. The State Bank of Pakistan has repeatedly called for more transparency, to no avail. Astonishingly, according to the Pakistani daily The Dawn, “Despite the frantic activity, Islamabad had yet to determine the expected cost and benefit, expressed in monetary terms, of the mega project.” And that’s before factoring in other costs such as the cultural and religious tensions between Chinese and Pakistanis, although there’s been a public relations push by both governments to downplay them.

Recently, The Dawn claimed to have accessed the alleged CPEC “master plan,” drawn up by the China Development Bank and the National Development Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China. It suggests that CPEC is really about agriculture, an issue that had not previously been discussed in the extensive media coverage of the plan. As part of the overall project, thousands of acres of productive agricultural land will be leased to the Chinese for “demonstration projects” for newly developed seed varieties and irrigation technology. Chinese companies will be the primary beneficiaries of these initiatives.

Pakistanis should be worried about the way CPEC is shaping up. If it is even partially executed, Pakistan would be indebted to China as never before. And unlike Pakistan’s other traditional allies, such as the United States, China will probably use its leverage to obtain greater compliance from its problematic client. China is particularly concerned about the Islamist militant groups active among China’s Uighur Muslim population in Xinjiang. Uigher militant groups have long shared ties with groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan, some of which have been patronized by the Pakistani state, such as the Afghan Taliban. China has used religious and political oppression, along with crude violence, to eviscerate the Islamist revival among Xinjiang’s Uighers and has counted on Pakistan to give China political cover while doing so. In taking on Chinese debt, Pakistan may also risk severely worsening its already critical relations with India, which has been watching the CPEC drama unfold with growing alarm. In the north, CPEC continues to make permanent the Pakistani and Chinese grip on territory India claims. In the south, Chinese naval vessels may dock in the deep port of Gwador, threatening New Delhi in the Arabian Sea. In normal times, this would be a serious concern for the United States — but Washington is so distracted by the chaos of the Trump administration that the issue has gone largely under the radar.

But the news may not be all bad. For China to get maximal returns on its extensive investments in Pakistan as well as Afghanistan it needs stability in both countries. In recent years, China has stepped up its role in trying to negotiate peace in Afghanistan by helping to mediate between Pakistan and Afghanistan. As Pakistan’s economy becomes evermore interwoven with China’s, China may be in a position to dampen Pakistan’s worrying affinity for terrorist groups and nuclear proliferation — particularly the latter, because China enabled Pakistan’s nuclear program to begin with.

If China took on the responsibility of managing Pakistan, Washington might be happy to wash its hands of the problem and let the civilians in Islamabad and the uniformed men in Rawalpindi stab someone else in the back for a change. emoticon-Ngakak (S)


haiyaaa ciilaaka luuwa weelas waaa

Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’ BPLN bakalan tambah rame waaa
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Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’
06-07-2017 19:31
China- Russia Friendship itu lebih mengancam amerika
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Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’
06-07-2017 19:41
Pakistan ? What a sad story
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Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’
06-07-2017 19:43
pakistan ngga tau ttg al maidah 51 ya
emoticon-Wakaka
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Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’
06-07-2017 20:05
haiiyaaa cilaka luabelass ohh, anjing menyalak kawilah belalu wahh emoticon-Big Grin
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Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’
06-07-2017 23:25
sama2 negara goblok waaa ....
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Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’
07-07-2017 04:22


Quote:Original Posted By ikyu828
pakistan ngga tau ttg al maidah 51 ya
emoticon-Wakaka

Kadar iman mereka rendah tau emoticon-Mad



Kata si ompong hiu emoticon-Leh Uga
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Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’
12-07-2017 17:00
CPEC Will Take Pakistan To A Place It Doesn't Want To Be

Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’

The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will take Pakistan back to a place it doesn't want to be: knocking on the door of the IMF, as it did back in 2001. With a big difference this time around -- the door may not be open.

CPEC will do a lot of great things for Pakistan and its genuine partner, China. For Pakistan, it's a major infrastructure project which will help the country make a big step forward, from an emerging to a mature economy, creating a lot of jobs in the process.

For China, CPEC is the western route to the Middle East oil, and the riches of its 'third continent,” Africa. It also serves Beijing's strategic ambition to surround India, something that makes Pakistan a natural ally.

But it will do a few bad things for Pakistan, too. Like adding to Pakistan’s corruption, which keeps pushing the costs of the project higher by the day, making Pakistan more indebted to China.

That comes at a time when the country is already living beyond its means, as evidenced by persistent current account deficits, government debt, and external debt.

Pakistan recorded a Current Account deficit of 1.20 percent of the country's GDP in 2016 fiscal year (July 2015 - June 2016), according to Tradingeconomics.com. In July - Dec 2016, the current account deficit was recorded at 2.2 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product. Current Account to GDP in Pakistan averaged -2.20 percent from 1980 until 2016.

Pakistan amassed a government debt equivalent to 66.50 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2016. Government Debt to GDP in Pakistan averaged 69.39 percent from 1994 until 2016.

External Debt in Pakistan increased to 75747 USD Million in the first quarter of 2017 from 74126 USD Million in the fourth quarter of 2016. The country’s external debt averaged 51689.12 USD Million from 2002 until 2017.

To be fair, none of these numbers paint a worrisome picture for Pakistan’s economy on their own. Except when they are taken in connection with two other numbers, foreign currency reserves and foreign capital flows.

Foreign Exchange Reserves in Pakistan decreased to 21019.20 USD Million in April from 21572.10 USD Million in March of 2017. Foreign Exchange Reserves in Pakistan averaged 15573.05 USD Million from 1998 until 2017.

Pakistan amassed a capital and financial account deficit of 989 USD Million in the first quarter of 2017. Capital Flows in Pakistan averaged -782.17 USD Million from 2011 until 2017.

Now, think of what will happen to these capital flows, as interest rates rise in the US, and you will see why taking on additional debt in projects like CEPC Pakistan is risking heading back to IMF — a not so friendly place for China’s allies these days.


haiyaaa ciilaaka luuwa weelas waaa

Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’ Wa wuunya kong co wiilank cincay waaa!!!
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Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’
12-07-2017 17:13
Waktu Pakistan berperang dengan India soal Kashmir, Cina ikutan ambil secuil ................................. emoticon-Ngacir
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Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’
13-07-2017 18:34
CPEC not only threatens India, it may also trigger Pakistan's collapse. Here's how

Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’
Pakistan’s benefit from CPEC is not yet clear except the fact that the country’s economy will further burdened with high-interest loans

The much-hyped China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor or CPEC not only challenges India’s sovereignty as it passes through PoK but has all the potential to trigger socio-economic collapse of Pakistan giving rise to instability impacting India and other neighbours.


CPEC that is being touted as the flagship project under Beijing’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) could make Pakistan politically and economically subservient to China, warn scholars within Pakistan. “The result of CPEC would be Pakistan turning into a country like Greece and taking unprecedented loans in the name of CPEC.

Our voice will not be heard until and unless we rebel,” claimed Dr Qaiser Bengali, a Pakistani economist, while addressing a meet in Karachi on Friday ahead of PM Nawaz Sharif’s trip to Beijing for the BRI meet. Indirectly referring to CPEC Dr. Bengali further claimed that all the statistics given by the government are presented in a way that people believe the economy is going in the right direction.

These alarming remarks were made in the backdrop of China deciding to pump additional funds for CPEC. April 16th, Chinese investments in Pakistan through the CPEC were revised upwards, from $46 billion to a whopping $62 billion.

As part of CPEC, Beijing plans to build new industrial parks, railways, and roads to link its Xinjiang region with Pakistan’s port city of Gwadar. But instead of giving cause for celebration, the colossal Chinese investments heading to Pakistan have sparked massive protests from locals and environmentalists.

Instead of opting for cutting edge technology the Chinese as part of CPEC decided to build power plants in power-starved Pakistan to produce 10,000 MW electricity but using obsolete technology.


A Pakistani scholar who did not wish to be identified told ET that CPEC would establish China as a neo-colonial power making Pakistan as its “province”.

“China’s over-capacity in cement, glass, steel and manpower is being poured in OBOR including Pakistan. CPEC has become the convenient way for China to deploy its excess manpower abroad.

Is this what is called all-weather friendship or is it a means to mortgage tomorrow’s future.

By exporting labourers and raw materials it is another convenient way for China to keep its air clean.

This is sort of reverse colonisation as feared by African countries few years back.

Pakistan’s benefit from CPEC is not yet clear except the fact that the country’s economy will further burdened with high-interest loans,” alleged the scholar. The rate of interest for Chinese funded projects under CPEC is as high as 8 per cent.

In a recent article in the ‘Central Asian Caucus Analyst’, Mushtaq A. Kaw, Head of the Department of History, Maulana Azad National Urdu University, Hyderabad, wrote, “The project faces several inextricable challenges and threats ahead of its completion in 2030…

Pakistan is currently unable to repay the Chinese loan due to its steeply soaring trade deficit (US$ 28 billion by June 2017) and national and international debts (US$ 73 billion respectively in 2015).

China will benefit more from the more from the project than Pakistan, because China is lending Pakistan for construction but the works will be executed by its own companies and work force.

Most of the lending is on commercial terms, including overhead charges on debt-service and loan-reinsurance. Even the lending involves charges of a debt-to-equity ratio of around 80:20, or in some cases 75:25. And in most cases, return on equity is guaranteed at either 17 or 20 percent.”

But it is not the scholars alone who have raised voices against economic and political implications of CPEC on Pakistan. Mehran Marri, Baloch representative to the EU, speaking at a seminar on OBOR in Brussels on May 5, referred to the first-hand experience of local Pakistani communities and the Baloch people, through where the CPEC was passing, and highlighted their suffering and repression at the hands of the Pak army. Marri alleged that as the CPEC experience clearly showed, China was not driven by any altruistic motives, and was not promoting OBOR to improve the lives of the local people.

Meanwhile, Delhi is monitoring every step of CPEC carefully as it not only passes through PoK and has strategic implications for India but due to the fact that the mega-project has the potential to create massive socio-economic instability within Pakistan impacting the neighbours.

Even noted international think-tanks echo Indian views. According to a report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute - a Swedish-based think-tank - India's opposition to CPEC reflects a concern over the internationalisation of the Kashmir dispute and the growing influence of China in the Indian Ocean.

haiyaaa ciilaaka luuwa weelas waaa

BPLN bakalan tambah rame lagi haaa???

Org Indo yg masih goblok,matee luuw melotot,ntar lagi negara luuw bakalan digadein waaa!!! emoticon-Ngakak (S)
Diubah oleh .hahaiyaa3
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Pakistan Can’t Afford China’s ‘Friendship’
13-07-2017 18:41
kasihan org bule, mau cengkram pakistan tapi ditolong china, akhirnya onani opini utk menjelekkan kerjasama kedua negara, tdk sadar dulu pake IMF utk cengkram pakistan juga emoticon-Ngakak
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