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Donald Trump just blew up the electoral map
Donald Trump just blew up the electoral map!!!





Donald Trump is very likely to be elected the next president of the United States, and he did it by completely blowing up the electoral map and all of our projections and expectations of it.

To wit:

  • *Trump won his so-called “must-win” states of Ohio, Florida and North Carolina in races that were called on Tuesday night.

    *Another apparent “must-win” state, blue-leaning swing state Pennsylvania, was just called for Trump, giving him 264 electoral votes -- just 6 shy of outright victory which should arrive relatively soon.

    *And even if he hadn't won those four states, he could have done it multiple other ways. Trump is also winning in two blue-leaning states that seemed beyond his reach just a week ago but where he invested some time in the final week — Michigan and Wisconsin. These are states that have long eluded the GOP's grasp and didn't seem likely to be winnable for Trump. He is up 3 points in Wisconsin with 96 percent of precincts reporting and 2 points in Michigan with 90 percent in.


All of this disproves the idea, which we and everyone else have espoused early and often, that Trump's path to victory was narrow. It wasn't. It was broad. We were wrong. The polls were wrong. We fundamentally misunderstood this election.

It was looking like he had to win Florida, Ohio and probably both Pennsylvania and North Carolina. He won all four, but he didn't even need to. Trump's apparently likely victories in blue-leaning Michigan and Wisconsin would just be the icing on the cake at this point. It looks like the electoral college won't even be close.

Tuesday morning, we looked at four possible Trump paths to victory, with each of them going through Florida and Ohio at a minimum. Giving Trump Michigan or Wisconsin was the least likely of the four outcomes, and we assumed only one of them might flip. It was considered unlikely, but worth entertaining.

But if you gave Trump either Michigan or Wisconsin, getting to 270 was much easier. He didn't need to win Pennsylvania anymore. He just had to add Florida, Ohio, North Carolina (all three of which are now won) and Iowa and Michigan to win. If he took Wisconsin rather than Michigan, he'd need to add either New Hampshire to get over the top, but that's looking increasingly very doable.

Trump won all of his "must-win" states and probably will win more, proving that everything we thought we knew about the polls and the electoral map was wrong. Wrong, wrong wrong.

Here's where we currently stand, without even including Michigan and Wisconsin as likely Trump wins. Trump is at 264 electoral votes; Clinton is at 215.



And just to show our work, here's the Wisconsin map, which we considered very unlikely on Tuesday morning: Florida + Ohio + North Carolina + Iowa + Wisconsin + New Hampshire = 273 electoral votes



And here's the Michigan map: Florida + Ohio + North Carolina + Iowa + Michigan = 275 electoral votes



The idea that Trump was a big underdog was prefaced on the idea that states like Michigan and Wisconsin weren't truly on the table. They were. But he apparently didn't even need them.



haiyaaa ciilaaka luuwa weelas waaa

Looks like Donald Trump going to win and Make Amerika Great Again waaa!!!

God Bless America the BEST country on Earth waaa

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