Analisis peneliti ini tepat, ekonomi Indonesia terguncang pada 2015
Kamis, 27 Agustus 2015 19:12


Haryo Aswicahyono

Merdeka.com - Peneliti senior Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Haryo Aswicahyono pernah menganalisis situasi ekonomi pada 2015. Ternyata analisisnya tepat dan terjadi pada tahun ini.

Dalam analisisnya, Haryo menuliskan pemerintahan Presiden Joko Widodo mewarisi kerentanan ekonomi. Apa penyebabnya?

Haryo menulis analisisnya dalam akun Facebook-nya pada 24 Agustus 2014. Dia menulis, stabilitas ekonomi pada Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono diakibatkan dua fakta. Pertama, Indonesia menerima apa yang disebutnya sebagai boom komoditas, dan yang kedua, Indonesia menikmati derasnya aliran modal asing yang masuk ke dalam negeri, atau disebut sebagai limpahan Quantitative Easing (QE).

Berikut ini analisis lengkap Haryo Aswicahyono yang ditulis 24 Agustus 2014 lalu dan terbukti sekarang ini:

Sebetulnya prestasi SBY 5 tahun belakangan ini tidak hebat2 amat karena 2 fakta berikut ini:

1. Indonesia menerima rejeki nomplok boom komoditas
2. Indonesia menikmati rejeki nomplok aliran modal masuk yang deras karena limpahan Quantitative Easing (QE) US

di balik dua keberuntungan ini ... tersimpan beberapa kerentanan struktural

a. Defisit Neraca Perdagangan (terutama karena impor minyak/overconsumption karena subsidi BBM, dan melemahnya daya saing sektor riil)
b. Defisit Fiskal yang makin membengkak mendekati batas 3% yang diijinkan UU (juga karena subsidi BBM)
c. Mengeringnya likuiditas perbankan (deposit naik perlahan, kredit naik pesat)
d. Menurunnya daya saing sektor riil

Boom komoditas sudah berakhir, sementara QE diperkirakan akan berakhir 2015. Ke depan Jokowi-JK mewarisi ekonomi yang memiliki banyak kerentanan yang lima tahun belakangan tertutup 2 rejeki nomplok tersebut di atas

Apa saja agenda prioritas bangsa, pemerintah, DPR, perusahaan, masyarakat?

1. segera membereskan UU dan protokol untuk mengambil langkah2 jika terjadi krisis (UU JPSK), sehingga jika terjadi krisis, pemerintah dan BI berani mengambil keputusan yang tepat untuk mengatasi krisis

2. Mencabut subsidi BBM untuk sekaligus mengurangi tekanan neraca perdagangan dan mengoptimalkan APBN

3. Memperbaiki daya saing sektor riil

ini semua agenda lama yang tercecer karena Indonesia terbuai dua rejeki nomplok di atas. Lima tahun ke depan pemerintah akan sibuk menambal kelemahan struktural tersebut.

Saat disinggung soal analisanya, yang oleh sebagian netizen dianggap tepat, Haryo mengatakan jika hal tersebut memang dapat dianalisa.

"Tidak saya saja, semua peneliti ekonomi juga bisa menganalisa situasi ini," ujarnya saat dihubungi merdeka.com.
http://www.merdeka.com/peristiwa/ana...pada-2015.html



Jokowi a wild card for Indonesia
SEPTEMBER 24, 2013 12:00AM



IF Jakarta's reformist governor Joko "Jokowi" Widodo emerges next year as Indonesia's new president it will not necessarily weaken the protectionist push in Indonesia, says Jakarta-based economist Moekti Soejachmoen.

Economic nationalism in mining and banking, for example, has troubled investors at a time when Indonesia faces political uncertainty and economic challenges, such as rising inflation, pressure on the currency, and deterioriation in the balance of payments.

At a Lowy Institute briefing in Sydney yesterday, Dr Soejachmoen pointed out that Jokowi, the most popular albeit undeclared candidate for next year's poll, comes from a political party background that supports economic self-sufficiency and support for small traders.

"So, how can he adopt a less nationalistic (economic) policy?," she said.

Dr Soejachmoen, who took her PhD at the Australian National University, which co-hosted yesterday's forum, said the drive for self-sufficiency imposed costs.

Lowy scholar Dave McRae said the possibility of Jokowi running for president had lifted once gloomy attitudes about next year's elections. A Suharto-era soldier and businessman Prabowo, accused of human rights abuses, had been shaping as a strong contender.

But Dr McRae said it was not certain that Jokowi would emerge as a candidate to replace the incumbent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

And if he were elected Jokowi, still an unknown quantity when it came to national policy, might disappoint Indonesians who had projected on to him so much hope for change and reform, Dr McRae said.

Meanwhile, Dr Soejachmoen said Indonesia's recent economic challenges had not led to serious reform because conditions were not bad enough to galvanise action and the political class was too busy gearing up for next year's elections.

Senior federal Treasury official Jason Allford told the Lowy forum these challenges were taking place "against the background of a pretty solid economy". However, long-term reforms were needed to underpin growth and lift incomes.

Asked about the view of Indonesia's peak business lobby, Kadin, that most Australian business had ignored the opportunities in Indonesia, Mr Allford said he was no expert but our level of investment there did seem "quite low".

"I would have thought that when you have a country (such as Indonesia) on your doorstep that is growing six or seven per cent per annum there should be a lot of business opportunities," he said.

"A quick look at the numbers" suggested Australia was not doing justice to these.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/high...-1226725471347


Is Indonesia at a crossroads?
Sep 22nd 2013, 23:50
by R.C, JAKARTA



DEVOTEES of both "The Simpsons" and The Economist will know that the former once parodied the high seriousness of the latter with a scene in which Homer, thumbing a copy, remarks: “Did you know that Indonesia is at a crossroads?” Homer's question, however, now seems worryingly apposite. In recent years the giant of South-East Asia, with a population of 240m, has been one of the best performers of the world economy, with growth rates consistently spiking above 6%. The only puzzle was why Goldman Sachs hadn’t added it to the BRICs. In the past couple of months, however, the mood has soured dramatically. The economy is stuttering and investors are getting out. On September 12th the central bank revised its growth forecast for this year down from a maximum of 6.2% to a range of 5.5 to 5.9%. So far this year the rupiah has fallen by about 16% against the US dollar and the benchmark stockmarket index is down by over a fifth since its record high in May. Is Indonesia now really at a crossroads?

Indonesia has been caught in a more general sell-off of Asian shares and currencies prompted by fears that America’s Federal Reserve will soon end (or at least “taper”) its policy of ultra-cheap money. But Indonesia, like India, has also been hit particularly hard for reasons that are specific to the country. Tumbling commodity prices, due to slackening demand from China and India, mean that Indonesia’s traditional sources of revenue, from coal, oil, gas and more, are under pressure. Yet the country has not taken advantage of its economic tailwind to tackle its manifold problems—awful infrastructure, rampant corruption and foot-dragging bureaucracy, to name but a few—that impede other sources of growth in the future. Thus Indonesia’s failure to modernise its economy is laid bare.

The blame for failing to implement reforms while the going was good can be laid at the door of the outgoing president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. But at least he leaves office next year, leaving the country (and more specifically the electorate) at the proverbial crossroads. Can it elect a president next year who can summon the required political nous to push through reforms that Mr Yudhoyono failed to pass? Or is the country destined to remain one of Asia’s great under-achievers? Some of the presidential candidates have already declared themselves, but they don’t inspire much confidence, being firmly wedded to the old governing elites (and even their families). One man, however, looks very different: the governor of Jakarta, the capital, Joko Widodo, usually known by his nickname Jokowi. He has not yet declared his hand, having been elected to run Jakarta only last year. But the polls show that if he were to run—and he is likely to—he would win by a landslide.

Homer would probably like Jokowi. At 52 he is young enough to represent a clear break with the generation of politicians that came of age under the dictator Suharto, toppled in a popular uprising in 1998, and who have ruled the country since. He does not hail from any of the traditional power centres of Indonesian politics, such as the army. He is open and approachable, as well as appearing to be clean. Little wonder he is popular with younger voters. And his record as mayor of the central Javanese city of Solo shows that he is willing to try out new ideas and push them through. He is relatively untested, and he will face any number of vested interests trying to stop him doing much in government. But with Indonesia finally at a crossroads, he might be the man to give it a go.
[url]http://www.economist.comS E N S O Reconomist-explains/2013/09/economist-explains-11#comments[/url]

India's Economic Woes Spread to Southeast Asia
By Bruce EinhornAugust 19, 2013


Shoppers walk through Siam Square in Bangkok. Photograph by Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

For anyone following the economic turmoil in India, the combination is depressingly familiar: A record high current-account deficit. A weakening currency. A spike in inflation. A fall in the stock market.

The same recipe that is creating India’s worst economic crisis in decades is now afflicting Indonesia, too. Consumer prices jumped 8.6 percent last month, the Jakarta government announced last week. Thanks to the slowdown in China, demand for Indonesian coal, palm oil, and other exports is falling, hurting the country’s trade balance. Indonesia has been running a current account deficit for the past seven quarters, and the central bank on Aug. 16 announced the current-account deficit had hit $9.8 billion. That’s the largest deficit ever and amounts to 4.4 percent of Indonesian GDP.

Investors in the Southeast Asian country’s stock market are worried about the parallels with India. Like India’s rupee, the Indonesian rupiah is suffering from a loss of confidence. The rupiah today fell to 10,500 against the dollar, a four-year low. The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index plunged 5.6 percent today, with volume more than 30 percent higher than the past month’s average, and has lost 8 percent of its value in the past two days. Since the start of July, the market is down more than 10 percent, making it the worst performer among the 94 global indexes tracked by Bloomberg.

In Southeast Asia, it’s not just Indonesia that’s in trouble. More bad news today came from Bangkok, with the latest economic numbers from Thailand showing that country has fallen into a recession. Thailand’s GDP contracted 0.3 percent in the second quarter compared with the first three months of the year. That’s the second quarterly contraction in a row for Thailand, which like its neighbors has suffered from a slowdown in Chinese demand.

The Asian economies are suffering as global investors prepare for the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy. While it’s unclear how much tapering we’ll see from the Fed and when, emerging markets such as India and Indonesia are already feeling the pressure as investors begin shifting their money back to the U.S. “Among the region’s economies, Indonesia and India are bearing the brunt of the reversal of capital flows in anticipation of QE tapering, exacerbated by domestic factors,” economists Stephen Schwartz, Weiwei Liu, and George Xu of BBVA Research (BBVA) wrote in a report published today.

While the Indian government and central bank have unveiled measures to support the rupee, investors are unimpressed, with the rupee today falling to a new low of 62.8 against the greenback. “Looking ahead,” the BBVA team wrote, “bolder structural reforms, including greater fuel price liberalization, land acquisition reforms, and higher foreign investment limits in insurance, pension management and the pharmaceuticals industry are crucial to regain investor confidence and shore up the rupee.”
http://www.businessweek.com/articles...-asia#r=hpt-ls

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Saya bukannya mau mencari kambimg hitam, tapi jujur sajalah, semenjak kabinet Jokowi-JK dibentuk bulan Oktoberr 2014 lalu, peran para ahli ekonomi yang mumpuni banyak ditampik (coba baca thread Kaskus setahun lalu ini). Personil kabinet untuk bidang ekonomi, lebih banyak di isi oleh para politisi titipan parpol, atau ahli ekonomi (ekonom) KW 2 dan 3, atau bahkan yang dominan justru para pedagang/saudagar sehingga ada yang bilang kabinet Jokowi-JK itu sebagai 'kabinet saudagar'. Celetukan itu nggak begitu keliru, mengingat yang dominan di elit kekuasaan saat ini adalah para saudagar (Jokowi, JK, Surya Paloh).Baru ketika perekonomian nasional mulai limbung dihantam krisis rupiah, 2 ekonom senior (Darmin Nasuiton dan Rizal Ramli) mereka panggil untuk membantu. Tapi apa yang bisa mereka perbuat kalau mulai aktif di kabinet belum ada sebulan?