In this article, I try to imagine 4 different scenarios for Aleppo in 6 months. Each scenario is based on one major tactical / strategical hypothesis, such as attitude of the Islamic State toward Loyalists or Rebels. Some scenarios have more or less probability of happening, as for example, it seems difficult for Islamic State to lead a mass attack on Aleppo Rebels or Loyalists given the number of enemies they currently fight in the same time (scenario 2 and 4). Therefore, I would rather think scenario 1 and 3 more likely to happen, but in war time major strategical events can happen, such as new alliance, truces and agreements, internal revolution, leadership changes, and so on, so it is impossible to forecast all possible scenarios. Please fell free to comment the article to say what you think of those forecasts.









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