Kamis, 26 Juni 2014, 16:24 WIB

REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA -- Mantan orang kuat di TNI, Prabowo Subianto untuk pertama kalinya memiliki tingkat elektabilitas, atau bahkan sedikit difavoritkan di depan Joko Widodo, dalam pemilihan presiden Indonesia. Hal itu sesuai dengan petunjuk lembaga survei kredibel.

Harian terkemuka Australia, The Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) mengulas soal pertarungan antara Prabowo dan Jokowi. Analisis itu ditulis secara detail oleh koreponden SMH di Indonesia, Michael Bachelard dalam artikel berjudul 'Silence of the polls as Prabowo pulls ahead in Jakarta race' pada Rabu (25/6).

Senjumlah sumber yang dikontak Fairfax Media, tulis SMH, mengonfirmasi bahwa tiga lembaga survei kredibel di Indonesia menunjukkan bahwa kini selisih persentase kedua capres terpaut sedikit sekali, bahkan sebuah survei menunjukkan Prabowo memimpin.

Peneliti Lowy Institute, Aaron Connelly, pada Selasa lalu, menuliskan bahwa tiga lembaga survei paling kredibel di Indonesia, CSIS, Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), dan Indikator Politik Indonesia, kini telah mengakui kedua capres sama kuat.

"Prabowo Subianto sekarang harus dianggap sebagai favorit untuk memenangkan Pemilihan Presiden 9 Juli, hasil yang tidak terpikirkan sebulan lalu," tulis Mr Connelly.

Fairfax Media telah mendapat konfirmasi dengan sejumlah sumber bahwa CSIS telah menyelesaikan jajak pendapat pada 15 Juni lalu, yang menunjukkan tiadanya kesenjangan kedua capres, tetapi menahan untuk mempublikasikannya.

Sumber SMH Mengatakan, tiga lembaga survei tersebut tidak merilis hasil survei terkini, karena ketiganya memiliki keterkaitan finansial dan filosofis Joko Widodo. Seperti Rizal Sukma dari CSIS, yang pada Ahad lalu memberikan masukan pada Jokowi sebelum debat capres bertema 'bertema Politik Internasional dan Ketahanan Nasional'.

"Mereka takut dengan mempublikasikan informasi itu akan membuat dukungan banyak ke Prabowo, di negara di mana menurut para analis masyarakat memiliki mental mendukung pemenang' ini," tulis SMH.

Ketika SMH meminta konfirmasi, baik Rizal Sukma maupun Burhanuddin Muhtadi, dari Indikator tidak merespons panggilan atau menjawab pesan singkat yang dikirim. Adapun, Saiful Mujani dari SMRC tengah berada di rumah sakit, menurut juru bicara.

Sumber :
http://www.republika.co.id/berita/pe...ei-demi-jokowi


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Silence of the polls as Prabowo pulls ahead in Jakarta race

By : Michael Bachelard
Indonesia correspondent for Fairfax Media

Jakarta: Former military strongman Prabowo Subianto has for the first time pulled level or even slightly ahead of the previous favourite, Joko Widodo, in the Indonesian presidential race, credible polling apparently shows.

But in a twist, one or more of those polls has been withheld from publication, apparently for fear of disheartening the Joko camp and shifting more votes to Mr Prabowo.

A number of sources contacted by Fairfax Media have confirmed that three credible polling organisations have now measured the gap between the two candidates at either within the margin of error, or with Mr Prabowo in the lead.

It’s a remarkable turnaround. Until the campaign began, Mr Joko, the popular Jakarta governor, had a double-digit lead.

But Mr Joko has been flat-footed by his opponent’s populist rhetoric, bolstered by a big-spending advertising campaign, blanket media coverage from TV stations owned by Mr Prabowo’s allies, and a successful “black” campaign of racial and religious smears against Mr Joko.

In early June the Indonesian Survey Institute said his lead had narrowed to 6.3 per cent — down from over 20 per cent earlier in the year. And on Monday, another (less credible) polling company, the Indonesia Survey Institute, showed Mr Prabowo with 51.2 per cent compared to Mr Joko’s 48.8 per cent.

But Lowy Insitute research fellow Aaron Connelly wrote on Tuesday that Indonesia’s most credible pollsters — the international group CSIS, Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting, and Indikator — had now judged the race to be neck and neck.

“Prabowo Subianto must now be considered the favourite to win the July 9 presidential election, a result that was unthinkable just a month ago,” Mr Connelly wrote.

Fairfax Media has now confirmed with a number of sources that CSIS finalised a poll on June 15 showing a negligible gap between the two campaigns, but has refused for 10 days to release it.

Sources say the reason may be because all three have a foot — either financial or philosophical — in the Joko camp. CSIS executive director Rizal Sukma, a respected international relations expert, briefed Mr Joko for his presidential debate last Sunday.

They fear that publishing the information may prompt even more support to flow to Mr Prabowo in a country where analysts believe a strong “back the winner” mentality exists.

Neither Mr Rizal nor Burhanuddin Muhtadi, of Indikator, responded to calls or texts on the subject, and Saiful Mujani of Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting was in hospital, according to a spokesman.

Sumber :
http://www.smh.com.au/world/silence-...625-zslof.html