Here are few thoughts regarding Russian military intervention in South-East of Ukraine.

Moscow has made a statement today, that “it is ready to defend Donetsk” from certain “right wing radical groups”. This has put the puzzle pieces in place. Geopolitical autistic Putin practically confirmed that next after Crimea will be South-East of Ukraine.

In my own simplicity I thought that Ukraine has 3 options: lose Crimea, lose South-East or lose independence and sovereignty. I was mistaken. According to the Kremlin, there are only 2 options: either give us half of Ukraine or Putin will take it all.

At the same time we have pointed out a few times that key to the Crimea is the Kherson region. Water, electricity, and a gas supply go to Crimea via this region. Without control over the Kherson region, there is not point to have Crimea – in 3 months, without water, people of Crimea will start protests to go back to Ukraine.

Here is the question – how to get South of the Ukraine? There is a significant presence of Russian troops in Crimea. However, this is only a “police” group, with limited heavy weapons, more appropriately used to control the occupied territory, rather than fighting with the regular Ukrainian army.

It will be problematic to move heavy weapons to Crimea: Putin stated before that there are no Russian troops in Crimea. It will be difficult to disguise a mass transfer of tanks to Crimea. And the Crimea itself is a rather poor springboard for an offensive: all the Ukrainian army will need to do is to block the narrow isthmus, and the Russians will start having big problems.
Putin does not have resources for mass landing from the sea, the Russian army and navy are simply not ready for such an operation. Of course, they can gradually build up forces and resources on occupied Ukrainian coast-line. This, however, will take weeks, in everyone’s view and the world will clearly see: Russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine.

At the current date, under these circumstances, the Kremlin has already created, so called “Putin’s southern belt”. This is 19,000 troops in Crimea and 1,500 troops (manly special forces) and 2,000 Cossacks in Pridnestrovie. However these troops can be used for invasion and control of Kherson, Odessa and the Nikolaev regions of Ukraine, only after having executed the main attack on the East of the Ukraine.

This is precisely the meaning of the picture, that we see today – invasion of the entire South-East.

Destabilising the situation in Donetsk and other eastern Ukrainian cities by means of “Putin tourists”, Kremlin has paved the way for such an attack. Actually, for three attacks. Judging from the concentration of the Russian troops near the Ukrainian border, invasion will be in Kharkov, Donetsk and Zaporozhye. Since there are no prepared defensive lines of the Ukrainian army at these locations, it will be a Putin’s blitzkrieg.

There is still a question regarding actions of Russian troops, concentrated in the North and North-East – in Belarus and north of Kursk. In theory, it would be foolish of Putin to attack along the lines of Chernigov-Priluki and towards Kyiv at the same time as three eastern directions – it is just too much for the dispersed forces. At the same time, taking into account an absence of the defensive potential in Ukraine, all this complex offensive might be executed without problems.

Question of the date is also obvious.Either night between 16th and 17th of March (right after the referendum in Crimea), or a day later. Indeed, the “right” circumstances on the South-East are already created by Putin (one can invade right now to “protect compatriots”), at the same time it does not make sense to keep the troops idle in current concentrated positions.
In this situation the main question that interests us is: can Ukraine and the international community thwart the plans of the newly found Fuhrer? I do not have an answer to this question. You and I can only believe that not everything is lost yet. At the same time packing my rucksack and reading the books on tactics of partisan war. I hope, the skills won’t be needed though.
Here are few thoughts regarding Russian military intervention in South-East of Ukraine.

Dmytro Tymchuk


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