China’s economy is set to exit a seven-quarter slowdown as the government rolls out infrastructure projects and limited inflation lets officials hold off from tightening monetary policy.

The National Bureau of Statistics will report tomorrow that gross domestic product expanded 7.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 53 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. That’s up from a three-year low of 7.4 percent in the previous period.

The risk is that the rebound may fade in the second half as the boost from railways and road projects ebbs and the government grapples with rising inflation and the expansion of shadow banking. While the nation is set to reverse its slide in economic growth, the pace remains short of the 10 percent average of the past two decades as higher wages and weakness in global demand limit export gains.

“The current recovery is being driven mostly by monetary and fiscal policy easing,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. “Once the momentum of policy easing slows, growth may trend down again.”

Tomorrow’s report will also include the latest monthly data. Factory output probably rose 10.2 percent in December from a year earlier, up from 10.1 percent in November, while retail sales advanced 15.1 percent after a 14.9 percent gain the prior month, according to median analyst estimates.

Data Skepticism

Analysts at companies including UBS AG and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. questioned an unexpectedly large increase in December’s exports, saying it may fail to capture the true picture.

“The recovery so far is led by accelerating public investment and stronger exports to Asian countries,” said Joy Yang, chief Greater China economist at Mirae Asset Securities (HK) Ltd., a former IMF researcher. “However, we have not seen clear signs of recovery in the private sector and in addition, consumption this year will likely be capped by slower wage growth and rising unemployment pressures.”

Auto sales in China rose 4.3 percent to 19.3 million last year, missing official projections for deliveries of as many as 20 million made in July.

Nike Orders

Nike Inc., the world’s largest sporting-goods company, said Dec. 20 that it continued to see its business in China deteriorate as orders decreased 7 percent in its fiscal second quarter ended Nov. 30.

The central bank has paused from its monetary easing since July after two interest-rate cuts and three reductions in lenders’ reserve requirements starting in November 2011. At the same time, the government has accelerated investment-project approvals, trimmed fees for exporters and increased spending on infrastructure.

Economists are split on whether China will ease monetary policy this year as the ruling Communist Party completes a once- a-decade leadership transition. While 12 of 19 analysts surveyed last month forecast a cut in banks’ reserve requirements, 13 of 28 see no change in the benchmark lending rate, with nine projecting an increase and six seeing a reduction.

Full-year expansion in 2012 was probably 7.7 percent, the weakest since 1999, and may pick up to 8.1 percent this year before slowing to 8 percent in 2014, based on analyst forecasts.

China has eschewed the scale of the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) fiscal stimulus announced in 2008 and eased monetary policy less than economists expected last year.



--Zheng Lifei. With assistance from Ailing Tan in Singapore and Cynthia Li in Hong Kong. Editors: Scott Lanman, Sunil Jagtiani

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...structure.html

yang ane pengen sorot adalah kualitas pertumbuhan ekonomi china

pertumbuhan ekonomi china sebenarnya gak jauh kyk indonesia

lebih ke arah kuantitas bukan kualitas

di 2013 pemerintah china berjanji untuk mengarahkan pertumbuhan ke arah yang lebih berkualitas

tapi itu semua akan menjadi janji belaka

Economist Marcelo Neri menyatakan sistem politik di china menyebabkan rendahnya kualitas pertumbuhan ekonomi di china