Sebuah sudut pandang modernisasi TNI dari analis militer Australia

Indonesia’s impressive political and economic development in recent years has fuelled expectations that Australia’s much larger neighbour could join the ranks of the world’s ten largest economies as early as 2030. While there are good reasons to caution against such long-term predictions, there’s a high likelihood that Indonesia will become stronger relative to Australia. Consequently, Prime Minister Tony Abbott has made the relationship with Indonesia a top foreign policy priority. In this context, Indonesia’s ambitious plans to modernise its armed forces (Tentara Nasional Indonesia, TNI) over the next 10 to 15 years, including a 274-ship ‘green-water navy’, 10 fighter squadrons and 12 new diesel–electric submarines, are of key interest for Australia. While Indonesia has had similar ambitions in the past, this time the match between resources and ambitions could be closer.

It’s timely to assess TNI’s current modernisation. Three major issues are particularly pertinent for Australia: the degree to which the capability balance between the ADF and the TNI could shift; the degree to which the TNI will strengthen its capacity to defend the Indonesian archipelago and contribute to regional security; and the implications of a relative shift in Indonesia’s military power for the Australia–Indonesia defence relationship. The study examines some key issues related to TNI modernisation:
What are the key drivers behind Indonesia’s efforts to build a modern defence force? What are the key trends and challenges for TNI reform? What are the strategic implications for Australia? And what could Australia do to support Indonesia’s military capability development and to further the bilateral defence relationship?
Chapter 1 introduces the importance of Indonesia to Australian strategic policy. Close geographical proximity, a sometimes conflicted relationship, and cultural differences, mean stable relations with our larger neighbour to the north are paramount for Australia’s security. Historically, Australia’s defence planning has accounted for two possible worst-case scenarios—Indonesia as a direct military threat or as weakly-defended lily pads that an aggressor might exploit to attack Australia. A ‘double asymmetry’ has worked for both sides: Indonesia didn’t face an existential threat from a much smaller but technologically superior ADF, while Australia didn’t face an Indonesian threat to its homeland from a much larger but less capable TNI. Now, the prospect of a friendly, militarily stronger Indonesia provides opportunities for moving the bilateral defence relationship beyond this paradigm.

Chapter 2 looks at current drivers behind Indonesia’s military modernisation which starts from a very low base. TNI urgently needs to replace many ageing, Cold War-era military platforms. Readiness levels are low and critical enablers for modern military operations such as logistics, sustainment as well as command and control are largely non-existent. The result is an imbalanced, mostly non-deployable force. When it comes to threat and risk perception, TNI remains very much focused on internal security challenges. However, Indonesia also takes the external environment more seriously. Military modernisation trends in Southeast Asia are a source of concern in Jakarta as are China’s ambitions in the South China Sea. The result is a push to increase TNI’s ability to control and defend Indonesia’s vast exclusive economic zone (EEZ) by investing in maritime and air denial capabilities.

Chapter 3 provides an in-depth analysis of key trends and challenges for TNI modernisation. The introduction of new military equipment should not distort from the fact that TNI’s defence procurement and capability development process remains ad hoc, incoherent and riddled by high levels of corruption. Indonesia’s institutional capacity to formulate and execute a coherent defence policy remains underdeveloped. Furthermore, while the defence budget has grown substantially in recent years, it’s still relatively modest. That’s also because rhetoric notwithstanding defence policy continues to rank low on Jakarta’s political agenda.

These shortfalls affect the modernisation efforts of the single services. The Indonesian Navy (Tentara Nasional Indonesia Angkatan Laut, TNI-AL) develops fragments of a ‘green-water’ navy through the acquisition of smaller, but modern frigates and corvettes equipped with anti-ship missiles, as well as a greater number of patrol boats and guided-missile attack craft. It’s also developing modern maritime doctrine to guide its operations. But it’s not a ‘balanced fleet’, lacking investment in critical areas such as long-range maritime surveillance, anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and mining/countermining. As well, its submarine program continues to face major problems. TNI-ALis far from being able to control most of its territorial waters effectively, and even then it will lack significant maritime power projection capability.
The Indonesian Air Force (Tentara Nasional Indonesia Angkatan Udara, TNI-AU) is also investing in more sophisticated equipment, particularly with regard to air combat and tactical airlift. However, its new fighters are largely incompatible and it lacks key assets for modern air combat operations such as airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) systems. Over the next two decades it will incrementally improve its capacity to patrol Indonesia’s air space and provide lift for operations within the archipelago. Yet, it’s highly unlikely that the TNI-AU will pose any significant operational challenge for a state-of-the-art air force such as the RAAF any time soon.
The Indonesian Army (Tentara Nasional Indonesia Angkatan Darat, TNI-AD) remains the most influential of the three services. Any analysis of the TNI needs to recognise that Indonesia is very much a defensive, continental power. The TNI-AD has taken some steps towards a more modern, agile and deployable force. However, most of its units remain non-deployable because of ineffective training schemes, lack of financial resources and a territorial command structure more suited to provincial politics than operational effectiveness. Major acquisitions such as new main battle tanks are largely symbolic. Until the TNI-AD addresses the problem of a force that’s too large and expensive, TNI modernisation as a whole will remain difficult.
Finally, TNI’s C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) systems remain rudimentary. It also faces a difficult choice between professionalism and (army) force size. To become more professional and deployable, the TNI needs to shrink, but it’s unclear if the TNI leadership is prepared to make such a trade-off. Additionally, Indonesia’s aim to strengthen the domestic defence industrial base to reduce its reliance on foreign arms suppliers paradoxically is likely to impede on TNI modernisation.
Chapter 4 discusses the implications for Australia. Indonesia remains a long way from reaching its ambitious defence plans. There’s little indication of a break with past practices: incoherent strategic planning and procurement; a largely insular defence doctrine; bold declarations about procurement plans without adequate funding; and money spent on expensive military equipment without the ability to keep it in service. Therefore, shortfalls in key areas of military capability such as professionalism, training, joint operations, air combat, submarine warfare, ASW, naval surface warfare, C4ISR, and logistics will either persist or only partially be addressed. TNI’s power projection capability beyond its EEZ will remain limited.
That means that for the foreseeable future, the ADF will retain its high-end ‘capability edge’ over Indonesia. For example, alarmist predictions about an erosion of Australia’s ‘air superiority’ are unfounded. Nevertheless, TNI will improve in relative terms, aided by Indonesia’s general political and economic trajectory. It will strengthen its denial capabilities and force projection within Indonesia’s EEZ. Access to modern technologies such as anti-ship missiles, better maritime domain awareness, an increase in coastal combatants, and improved capacity to deploy troops within the archipelago means that the TNI will be better placed to engage any hostile force operating in its maritime approaches. It will also increase its capability for missions below the high-end military spectrum such as unconventional, guerrilla warfare. Should there be tensions in Australia’s strategic relationship with Indonesia, for example in a crisis over Papua, the ADF would certainly face a TNI in a much better position to pose enormous operational headaches.
Consequently, as Indonesia’s relative military power grows, Australia has a strategic interest in ensuring cooperative (or at least neutral) defence relations with our bigger neighbour. A friendly, militarily more powerful Indonesia would be a major geostrategic asset for Australia. Indonesia’s current investments in coastal defence and littoral warfare will make it very difficult for any hostile force to establish a stronghold in the archipelago in order to project force against the Australian continent. Moreover, Australia–Indonesia defence relations are based on a greater convergence of strategic interests.
Moving forward, defence cooperation needs to go beyond ‘low-hanging fruits’ such as staff exchanges, military exercises or humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR). Australia (and Defence) needs to think about new, creative ways to support TNI’s capability development and to strengthen the bilateral defence relationship. The days where TNI was an eager recipient of Australian defence aid (including fully funded activities) are numbered. One new element for defence cooperation with Indonesia could be to utilise the Defence Materiel Organisation (DMO) to improve TNI’s defence procurement and sustainment process. DMO could also initiate cooperation between Australian defence industry and TNI to expose Indonesia to ‘best practice’ in defence contracting and sustainment. In addition, Defence could offer to assist TNI in doctrine and capability planning.
Further strengthening single service cooperation between the ADF and TNI is critical to building trust and to hedge against future crisis. Defence should consider increasing the Army’s special forces’ interaction with its Indonesian counterpart by upgrading Special Operations Command’s (SOCOMD) representation at the Australian Embassy in Jakarta. As well, Army should intensify the nascent regular army-to-army cooperation; the emerging amphibious capability provides one such opportunity. Moreover, as the TNI navy and air force grow in relative importance, the RAN and RAAF should increase their networks beyond existing levels. In general, the ADF needs a larger pool of officers trained in Bahasa Indonesia and cultural awareness.
Finally, joint maritime surveillance is an underdeveloped area of cooperation. The Cocos Islands could be used as a location for joint operations and for sharing information on boat movements. Further, Australia could increase Indonesia’s capacity to monitor its maritime and air space by sharing data from the Jindalee Operational Radar Network (JORN). Sensitivities about JORN’s security could be mitigated by providing Indonesia with only filtered datasets. In turn, Indonesia could share data from its newly established maritime surveillance systems.
Indonesia’s military will continue to face a considerable gap between ambitions and reality. Yet, Australia needs to anticipate and shape the emergence of a more capable TNI that is willing and ready to influence security in our key area of strategic interests.

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Dampak MEF 1 udah mulai kerasa kah? gimana MEF 2 dan 3 nanti ya?